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Investment Institute
Macroeconomic Research

2024’s elections around the world: The who’s who and the so what…

  • 23 January 2024 (7 min read)

Key points:

  • More than 60 countries, representing almost half of the world’s population, go to the polls in 2024.
  • The US Presidential election is likely to be the most consequential; a rerun of the 2020 Biden vs. Trump contest looks most likely, but alternatives are still plausible.
  • European Parliament and UK elections are likely to have less global significance, but will impact policy going forwards.
  • Geopolitically-sensitive general elections took place in Taiwan in January – the Democrats achieved a historic third consecutive Presidential victory. We continue to monitor China’s reaction.
  • Policy continuity is expected in major emerging markets such as Indonesia, India and Mexico. South Africa’s ANC party may lose its Parliamentary majority for the first time since apartheid and Turkey’s local elections will test the country’s commitment to orthodox policies.
  • In frontier markets, Panama faces an uncertain outcome and Senegal is looking at a fraught election process.


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